Science doesn’t care what you think.
Don’t get in the mud with pigs. The pigs love it and you just get dirty.
Many turned away from COVID and focused on the upcoming election.
Lots of people screwed up (and continue to screw up) regarding the testing situation. The people involved are struggling to get it right.
The United States has the dubious honor of standing alone as the only affluent nation to have suffered a severe, sustained outbreak for more than four months.
Over the past month, about 1.9 million Americans have tested positive for the virus. That’s more than five times as many as in all of Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia, combined. Ugh.
The United States has the dubious honor of having 4% of the total world population, and 25% of the COVID 19 cases.
It’s Not Looking Good. When Will This Great Surge Flatten?
There is no predicting human behavior.
I don’t know and neither does anyone else.
The surge in Washington and California is disproportionate. Forty-four percent (44%) of positive cases are Hispanic in Washington; 58% are Hispanic in Fresno county. In Fresno county there’s more Hispanics there than there are white, 39% Hispanic to 37% white. (Source: Washington Department of Health and California State Department of Health). Hispanics are having a harder time due to their socioeconomic status, working in essential jobs, multiple generations in one household, problems accessing medical care, and not following safety protocols. It is also difficult if not impossible to adequately test and contact trace.
Going Back to School
School is right around the corner. Families all over the nation are deeply concerned about this … and … they are alarmed at the rise in new COVID cases and the upcoming flu season. Teachers are afraid to go back to school. Up here in Whatcom County, it looks as if everything will be online, at least until the beginning of 2021.
Granddaughter Ashlyn is in a homeschooling summer school program where she receives 1-1 tutoring from a teacher for several hours a week. The plan is to continue this in the fall. She will spend some time each week with a limited number of other students. Grason has indicated he would like to take his high school classes online. McKenna will be doing all of her first quarter classes at Western Washington University online. We are fortunate that parents have flexible schedules to support the kids (and grandparents if needed). But I worry about all of those other families and how they will handle this. We must get this virus under control!
Mixed Messages
It’s said that the Georgia governor is suing the Atlanta Mayor for requiring masks. It’s widely considered to be a political move after Trump didn’t wear a mask during visit there. Meanwhile, cases are surging there. What is partisan about wearing masks???
Things appear complicated that really aren’t. Consistent leadership should be required! Inconsistent messaging is prevalent. Partisan politics should be a crime when battling COVID.
People, Get a Grip.
Still lots of misinformation out there comparing COVID 19 with prior viruses. There are differences between them. Also, we STILL don’t know everything about this virus!!!
COVID doesn’t last very long. If someone gets AIDS, they have it forever. SARS in 2003? There was transparency and scientists worked together worldwide. Eradication occurred not so much due to science, but to the “stay safe and healthy” measures part of a 19th century toolbox that are being recommended today that were effective during the 1918 Pandemic. With COVID, everybody in the world that’s affected now won’t be in 3 weeks. Everybody that will be in the hospital in 3 weeks isn’t infected yet. But it’s controllable. New York did it … went to -0- new cases at one point. I thought about this.
Governors should be calling New York Mayor Cuomo and asking him … how did you do it … but no, they say, “you’re a Democrat, I’m a Republican.” SMH
So far, this country’s leaders have FAILED to guide us through this pandemic. And we feisty Americans want to maintain our liberty and individuality. We need to band together and do the right thing.
Vaccine Development
Several pharmaceutical companies are entering Phase Three of vaccine trials. We could have a vaccine as soon as the beginning of next year. Last March, I talked to our neighbor, who is a retired veterinarian. He told me that there would be a vaccine by the end of the year. I found that hard to believe until he explained it to me. The Coronavirus mutated from a mammal (bat) and further mutation enabled transmission from human to human. The structure is like that of several animal “Coronaviruses” and veterinarians have developed animal vaccines for years. They are familiar with the science that’s involved. Sure enough … I read an article in Time Magazine about one of the trials that’s going into its final phase. The researcher interviewed was originally a veterinarian.
After talking to this neighbor, I began following the information coming in from the scientists. There are many all over the world on a fast track to develop treatment protocols and a vaccine … because the effect on the entire WORLD is PROFOUND. It’s been going on since March. Many are going into Phase 3 (final phase) of testing, and the process of creating the vaccines and dispensing them will occur PRIOR to final approval. That means once approved (if approved) by the FDA, the plan will be in place for dispersal and no time will be lost. And, if the FDA doesn’t approve it? Well then the billion dollars spent developing the vaccine, and all of those millions of vials, will go in the trash. It’s the cost of doing business.
Lynn and I have decided that when a vaccine becomes available, and providing there is a recommendation from our Primary Care Physician who we fully trust, we will be vaccinated.
Speaking of Vaccinations ….
Dr. Fauci is saying that even once a vaccine is ready and disbursement begins, it will take months for everyone to get vaccinated (“everyone” meaning all of those willing to get the vaccine). So as of the middle of August … still … this isn’t “going away” anytime soon.
More from Dr. Fauci
Around the middle of August, I listened to Dr. Fauci’s “pushbacks” to so much criticism of him:
Science, he said, requires humility and flexibility in a dynamic situation like a global pandemic.
“I wouldn’t talk about failures, because I followed the science, and the science isn’t failure,” Fauci said. “I think I will be known by the fact that I have always, always spoken the truth, and have always made any kind of recommendation or decision based on the data that was available at the time that I was making the decision.
“Science stays the same. The data changes,” he continued. “But when you’re dealing with an evolving situation, where every week and every month you learn something new, science helps you to accumulate the correct evidence and the correct data. And that’s what I do. That’s what I’ve always done, and that’s what I’ll continue to do.”
I continue to trust him. There is also a lot of criticism of Dr. Deborah Birx, another key member of the Coronavirus Task Force. Dr. Fauci’s comments regarding that:
“My advice to her is the same advice that I give myself: Don’t get distracted by all that stuff. Just focus like a laser beam on what your job is and what your mission is,” Fauci said.
“I have been criticized a thousand times more than she has, as you well know,” he added. “At least she hasn’t had editorials written by White House staff against her.”
Mid-August 2020
Testing and Contact Tracing
Testing is still inadequate, and varies by area. I’ve heard first-hand stories. A family member needed to get a test, as there was a small possibility that she could have it due to some suspicious symptoms. She contacted her medical care provider and was told that an appointment could be scheduled and that once she had the test, she would need to wait 3-5 days for the results. So meanwhile, she should quarantine. She didn’t want to wait for up to 2 weeks for test results. Eventually, she paid $235 for results in 20 minutes (she was negative). I couldn’t help but think about the many people that don’t have the money for quick results, and that need an answer so they can get back to work.
Contact tracing is inadequate and slow. Far more tracers are needed, according to the science I have chosen to listen to. This isn’t helping the efforts needed to flatten the spread of COVID 19.
Some medical personnel are saying that everyone will get it and then it will go away …. a warped view of herd immunity and how it works. It’s a statement fueled by those that can think of nothing but “opening back up.” I am disturbed by this. Time will tell. My opinion is that following the science and guidance provided by those qualified to do so is the only way to determine how and when we should SAFELY resume our lives.
Kids Going Back to School
I am glad that the kids in Whatcom County will be going back to school online. In-person class is suspended until at least the beginning of 2021. Many locales are leaving it up to parents as to how their children will attend school (in person, online, or a combination of both).
A leading medical researcher described how he and his wife made this decision for their children. They visited the school and saw that the preparations made for safety (social distancing, masking, small numbers of children, cleaning and other PPE protocols) were adequate. They discussed how the other kids would be coming to the school, and how often they would be tested. And finally, they considered the current positive case numbers in their area. Because they were too high, the decision was made for the kids to stay home and attend school online. I agree that this was a sensible way to make this decision. The safety of our children should always be our first consideration, in spite of the many downsides of not going back to on-site classrooms.
As of August 20, 2020
Upcoming Presidential Election
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is underway and the Republican National Convention (RNC) will be next week. Obama says Biden will get the pandemic under control. I focus on the last two words of this last sentence. He recommended science and facts above all else. He isn’t promising to “stop” the pandemic. I agree with this approach and think that this is how we will be able to eventually flatten the curve.
“Our grandchildren will look back. We want them to be able to see what we did rather than what we thought.” … Kamala Harris, Vice Presidential Nominee, DNC
More Studies Regarding COVID 19 Post-Recovery After Effects
Studies are revealing that many people that have recovered from COVID 19 have ongoing health issues. They are saying it could be as high as 35% of those that have recovered from COVID 19. And not all of them had preexisting conditions. The results of additional studies will be revealed in the near future.
—/—
Our Finest Hour
My faith and belief in Jesus as my Savior has provided me with much comfort and patience. The pastors at our church have been delivering messages (online) focusing on the Life of Moses.
Moses’ “finest hour” was sacrificing himself for the sin of his people. The unselfishness of one to benefit the many. Our lead Pastor gets emails and calls from parishioners, asking when they can come back to church. They say that “they are not feeling spiritually nourished anymore.” Our pastor’s response was … it’s a heart thing …. about your relationship with the Lord … not whether or not you are in a building.” He asked: What do you want most: a closer walk with Christ or your old life back?
What I struggle with are selfish people that don’t want someone telling them what to do. Which means that efforts to contain the virus could be compromised.
—/—
Social media posts bring up that deaths are an indicator of how successful coronavirus control is, and I occasionally hear this from my friends. No. Dangerously misleading. As long as case numbers are increasing in an area, the death figures will appear to be lower as they are based upon prior case numbers from as far back as 3-4 weeks. Because the deaths are from the population of a lower number of new cases that occurred as long as a month ago. Higher death numbers based on the increase in positive numbers could follow. The death counts are usually weeks behind. Anyone that follows the science would know this. I’m hoping that better treatment solutions will help to slow down the death rate over time.
August Comes to a Close
Consequences of Some Colleges Opening Up
Some colleges that opened up are already experiencing outbreaks, which has affected (and even discontinued) classroom attendance.
More Vaccine News
Actual science doesn’t care what we want. Neither does coronavirus.
Below are notes taken from a Dr. Sanjay Gupta podcast, featuring Vaccine Scientist Dr. Peter Hotez.
Currently, in an article published in the Journal of Public Health, up to 20% of our population hold negative views of vaccines. This is what is troubling right now. Vaccines save lives. They are essential to reducing disease and inequity throughout the world. There is a lot of misinformation and confusion out there now. And there is additional confusion regarding Operation Warp Speed, the Government’s effort to accelerate the development of a Coronavirus vaccine.
Ant-science movements thrive in a vacuum. They are more empowered now due to the desire for a vaccine. But they are a smaller part of the population that is apprehensive. Misinformation is driving much of the uncertainty right now. Most people would respond positively to a good communication strategy, as there is greater risk in not getting the vaccine.
A high percentage of the population has to have the vaccine for it to work: (1) Reduce disease severity, (2) prevent infection, and (3) herd immunity. The herd immunity will not occur if not enough people get the vaccine.
Side Effect Concerns
Very robust tracking in the various phases will catch common problems. There could be less common risks that could come up, but they will be caught in later vaccines. There is FDA mistrust deterring people from wanting the vaccine. But the greatest risk is NOW. We should get vaccinated as soon as a vaccine is available. We certainly will.
Operation Warp Speed
The vaccine development is progressing rapidly, but this is because there are multiple vaccine candidates in development at the same time. The Phase 3 clinical trials, where they have 30,000 human participants taking the vaccine (or a placebo), are being thoughtfully done to ensure they are accurate and safe. If one is approved that’s not the best vaccine, there would still be an opportunity to get a “booster” without any risk.
Trusting What is Said
The FDA is robust, but they gave emergency use for hydroxochloroquine. However, the difference between vaccine development and drugs is that there is a much more stringent development system for vaccines. It would not be easy for someone to “mess” or “push” vaccine development or attempt to influence the FDA. Too many scientists would push back against this.
Dr. Hotez predicts the middle of 2021 before they are widely available. Setting a date is not advisable. There has to be enough time to determine how it works and how safe it is.
Convalescent Blood Plasma Treatment
The FDA has approved this treatment plan, although the evidence is incomplete. Basically it uses blood plasma from people that have had COVID 19, injecting into very sick people under certain conditions to help them recover. It does so by bolstering the immune system. There is incomplete and very limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) data available to date. One reason is that a large number of the people were also receiving other therapies along with the Blood Plasma Treatment.
But it’s exciting to learn that in addition to vaccines, treatment therapies are underway. Maybe additional ones are soon to be released.
—/—
Testimony from a Vaccine Trial Volunteer
The last phase of vaccine trials are beginning. One of Sanjay Gupta’s daily podcasts includes the testimony from someone that has volunteered as a participant in the third phase of a promising vaccine trial. He describes the process, which is involved and continues for two years. He won’t know whether he received the vaccine or a placebo until (and if) the vaccine is approved for disbursement. The goal is 30,000 participants, and as of August 26, 8000 had volunteered. It’s easy to understand why it takes so long to adequately test vaccines.
—/—
The RNC
“Believe none of what you hear, half of what you read, and only what you’re there to witness firsthand” …. (what Lara Trump said at the RNC.) As I apply this to COVID 19, the “hearing” is rhetoric and opinions I hear from others (those, not necessarily mine); half of what I read (same thing, except I carefully CHOOSE the half that I believe) … and witnessing firsthand?* Unfortunately it may take many more cases and lives lost for us to unify in the effort to flatten this pandemic. Too many folks live under a rock (or in a box) … and live their lives as if COVID 19 is nowhere near them. Some of these folks are good friends. It’s troubling, but I have to shake it off.
Throughout the RNC, President Trump and others spun a tale of how he managed COVID 19 by “standing up” to the virus. This contradicts what I have heard him personally say at his press conferences in which he minimized the threat of the virus, falsely predicted that it would “disappear” with warmer weather, promoted several unproven miracle cures, pushed states to reopen before meeting federal government benchmarks, avoided committing to mask-wearing in spite of guidance to do otherwise, defied social distancing guidelines and repeatedly told Americans that “everything was under control.”
Additionally, I recall that Governor Inslee in Washington was desperately asking for more PPE and testing materials to control the spread of the virus. This needed support was slow coming from the White House.
*I witnessed firsthand while watching the RNC on television that there was no Social Distancing and no masks worn by the audience in front of the White House on the second, third, and fourth nights of the RNC. I believe that POTUS is currently creating an alternative reality regarding his handling of the pandemic.
There are mobs of people standing outside talking with President Trump, Melania, and VP Pence and his wife Karen. Very close together, not one mask. I don’t understand …. to me it looks like a blatant disregard of the current pandemic. And Trump is acting like he’s at a big party.
Yet Another Testing Update
Testing is STILL inconsistent across the country, and even within an area. It can take 30 min to 2 weeks to get an appointment for a test and then get the results. And results can be inaccurate.
The consensus by experts is that the problem is that there has never been a federal plan. White House efforts to coordinate coronavirus testing nationwide has fallen short. There is not enough of everything which has led to a big competition between states to get what they need. As of the end of August, the United States still has an unreliable and confusing testing system.
CDC’s Recent Announcement and Why It’s Not Good
CDC put out a notice that those with no symptoms that have been exposed to coronavirus may not need to be tested.
The problem is that we already know that 50 percent of transmissions are from people with no known symptoms. CDC needs to have a better explanation of their announcement. It must be reiterated that if you have interacted with someone known to have coronavirus, whether or not they have symptoms, then they should be tested. They could be endangering others even if they don’t feel sick themselves. This is especially important if people start getting out more.
Coincidentally, I heard from a good friend that a couple that we have known for many years both contracted COVID 19. In her words: “Apparently they visited her brother and he had been exposed, but wasn’t sure if he would get it. But they got it, so apparently so did HE!”
So in my opinion, it is still important that if you think you may have been exposed to someone with the virus, quarantine yourself until you get a test and get the results back. And for Pete’s Sake, follow the guidelines! Distance, masks, washing, avoiding gatherings ….
The goal is to eliminate labs which slows down results. There is a possible saliva test that doesn’t require a lab to process results. It’s inexpensive to buy and provides quick results. It could be available by October. That would be cool!
State of California’s New Website
I really like the new website and wish all of the states had the same.
It relies on two leading health metrics: number of cases per 100,000 residents and percentage of COVID-19 tests that come back positive (positivity rate). In addition, counties will also be required to show they are targeting resources and making the greatest efforts to prevent and fight COVID in communities and with individuals with the highest risk, and demonstrate improvements in outcomes.
Fresno County is Currently 16.5 cases per 1k and 11.0 positivity rate. It is in the highest risk (widespread) category. The goal is for less than 1 per 1k and less than 2% positivity rate.
What About College Sports?
It looks like college sports will be cancelled. There is really no way to adequately guard against risk for players or others, such as support staff. Everyone would have to “live in a bubble.” And then, what about competing teams? Too much risk with mingling of players and staff, and really no way to know where they’ve been or who they’ve been with.
Meanwhile, in the News …. It’s All About the Upcoming Election
The upcoming Presidential Election is shoving the virus aside as far as chatter is concerned. People are emotional about it, no matter what “side” they are with. It seems to have taken over both COVID 19 and the numerous protests that are still going on in major cities.
A few things for me to remember as the month comes to a close ….
It’s The cracks that let the light come in. Bad stuff can end up being interesting. Perhaps having a psychologically rich life is most rewarding in the end. So Lynn, keep watching Hallmark movies, Perry Mason, and other relaxing dramas. Let’s keep enjoying our morning coffee times and our kids. And appreciating what we have, and how much we are blessed. I’m taking a deep breath as we head into the fall months.