With Memorial Day just over and many locales lifting their shelter-in-place orders, people are being faced with new decisions. We need to use common sense and our own risk calibration, as we keep in mind that just because we can resume activities doesn’t mean we should. States are closely examining COVID cases in the hopes that businesses can open up.
In the midst of this, President Trump came up with some pretty amazing statements and continued his tweeting madness.
“I call upon governors to allow our churches and places of worship to open right now,” Trump said, making the announcement and leaving without taking questions after calling church closings an “injustice.“
Trump threatened to “override” governors if they weren’t allowed to reopen “this weekend.”
Trump ignored — or at least downplayed — the science of the virus in favor of a rapid push to reopen. The unemployment numbers were staggering. My opinion? I think he sees his re-election chances slipping.
I can’t speak for Lynn on this one. I paid careful attention to all of President Trump’s press conferences. It was after hearing him continue to make odd and confusing remarks that downgraded the seriousness of the pandemic that I decided he could no longer be relied upon to be my source of guidance. His decision to “leave it up to the states” allowed me to rely on the Governor’s press conferences for status reports and current information. At this time, POTUS was most interested in opening up the economy and “getting back to work.” I believe that the Federal Government (and Chief Executive) should provide science-based guidance to the country, as well as support, while letting the states make individual choices based on this guidance and their situation. There is no guidance here.
By early June, all 50 states were in some sort of reopening phase. But I don’t see that infection rates are going down. In some states, they are going up. That alarms me.
When businesses are allowed to reopen, will they follow adequate safety protocols? Will people make responsible decisions? I remind myself to be kind, do what I feel is safe, and leave others to make their own choices and respect their decisions. I also realize that on occasion I might have to adjust or make new decisions based upon choices made by others to help keep me safe.
Counties in Washington Go to Phase 2
Whatcom County was allowed to move to Phase 2 on June 2. Changes to ensure businesses are safe to allow reopening seem draconian, although certainly necessary. Going shopping, dining out, etc., aren’t appealing to Lynn and I. We also don’t feel safe yet so want to wait and see how COVID 19 reacts to all of this. Memorial Day just passed, with lots of very warm sunny weather that meant people up here came out with a vengeance.
I figure I will wait until the first part of July to see how moving to new phases affected the number of COVID 19 cases.
I booked a flight to California. My plan is to fly into Fresno on my birthday, July 27, and fly back on August 5. I will rent a car and drive to SoCal for a few days to see youngest son Evan, wife Megyn and oldest granddaughter, Sara. If I need to cancel and/or reschedule, I won’t be charged any rebooking fees. Businesses are making lots of concessions due to COVID 19.
Revised Physical Distancing Decisions
We are spending more time with kids and grandkids, primarily because we can move outdoors so easily. We are still physically distancing from other adults with the exception of our friends Dale and Carolyn that are in Blaine every summer. We are not having manicures or pedicures, going to restaurants, or shopping (unless necessary). Lynn is getting a monthly haircut, but I’m sporting COVID Hair.
Collective Risk
What I have chosen to BELIEVE at this time: Individual actions are crucial, but they do not replace the need for sound public policy. The higher the rate of COVID 19 in a community, the more likely any one individual you come into contact with has the virus and the riskier your interactions become. COVID is an “aerosol spreading” virus. This is why mask-wearing is now important: If most people wear a mask, it reduces the amount of virus that we will transmit. Local and state policymakers should continue to ban large gatherings and follow the CDC guidelines for gradual reopening. They must have surveillance systems in place to detect if and when infections rise and be willing to reimpose restrictions.
Whoa! What About My Privacy? Contact Tracing App News
It was announced that sometime this month, Google/Apple are going to release smart phone software to be included in an update that will support apps developed to assist with contact tracing. There was a flurry of social media activity expressing fear that this would be an invasion of privacy. I was so annoyed by the posts I temporarily muted some of the posters.
I noticed that the software app actually came out as part of my smart phone software update. I read the specs and saw that it wouldn’t even function without a contact tracing app. Also, the software can’t be turned on unless it’s linked to such an app. That blew apart many of the false theories that were circulating. I definitely plan on installing and using it when it is available. “The selflessness of one to benefit the many.”
Notes from a Major WHO Conference
Why does Africa have less cases? They got borders closed right away and applied early social distancing measures that they already had experience using when they were faced with a prior pandemic.
Hydroxychloroquine
Early on, this drug was touted by President Trump as good treatment therapy and perhaps even a way to prevent COVID 19. Statistics have revealed that this drug causes more deaths in COVID patients than it supposedly helps. Studies are susceptible to biases so they are being secured. WHO is suspending use until further studies are completed. Results should be ready in a week or two. (Towards the end of June, scientific research revealed that Hydroxychloroquine was not helpful and even harmful to some in the treatment of COVID 19).
Many are already asking about the likelihood of a “second wave” of cases.
Still in the First Wave
Globally we are still in middle of the first wave. The concern now is that the number of cases can jump back up at any time. Peaks can occur in this first wave as well as during a future second wave. We must continue current safety measures and not let up. The chance of a second wave is a concern in the fall and during flu season; however, there appears to be no indication that COVID 19 spread is affected in any way by warmer temperatures.
But human behavior can make a difference. In the winter people stay in more with each other in close quarters. A decrease in case numbers are due to measures, not a “natural occurrence” or “seasonality.”
A large number of the population is still susceptible. The virus amplifies in certain settings . . . but we have a toolbox to suppress transmission (distancing, testing, contact tracing). I considered Japan’s situation. They are doing all that is required to avoid a peak. Strengthen protocols! Public health and social measures have been in place in ALL countries that have managed to suppress cases. If ALL measures are followed, easing restrictions can be done much more safely. Decrease “spaces” that allow virus to move. It moves fast and is a killer. The big danger is complacency. The virus will take advantage of this to spread! Because of this we have a long way to go. We have only just begun.
Current finding now is that the airborne droplets are the major cause of contamination, not touching a surface. However, this doesn’t negate the need to wash hands, wipe down, social distance when possible, and when needed use PPE like masks and gloves.
The Mask Brouhaha
Dr. Fauci and others are now recommending that people wear masks when indoors, and when they can’t practice social distancing for a minimum of 6 feet. But wait! He said “way back in March” that masks weren’t recommended! So he’s flip flopping! Right? Wrong.
Dr. Fauci said:
... in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs and masks for the health providers who are putting themselves in harm’s way every day to take care of sick people.
A surge of people buying masks (as they had been doing regarding toilet paper) would be a huge problem and would, due to the short supply of masks at the time, put health care professionals in harm’s way.
Dr Fauci later said:
“When it became clear that the infection could be spread by asymptomatic carriers who don’t know they’re infected, that made it very clear that we had to strongly recommend masks,” he said.
“And also, it soon became clear that we had enough protective equipment and that cloth masks and homemade masks were as good as masks that you would buy from surgical supply stores,” Fauci added. “So in the context of when we were not strongly recommending it, it was the correct thing.”
This was another reminder for me that science is not a body of research. It is an ongoing project.
Additional Current Findings
Boeing and Airbus Study How Coronavirus Behaves During Air Travel — The Wall Street Journal
Opening Up Churches
Many were complaining that churches should be allowed to reopen … why shouldn’t they be able to, since restaurants, salons, grocery stores, etc., were allowed to open? Fortunately, most churches seemed to take the safety of their members seriously when making decisions about reopening. Our church, Cornwall Community in Bellingham, decided not to reopen until Phase 4. Singing, talking loudly, and too much close contact are reasons that support a cautious approach to reopening churches (the reason due to the “aerosol” spread of the virus via the mouth or nose).
George Floyd’s Death and the Protests
Protests have begun in earnest due to the recent tragic murder of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis. Many are concerned about the affect this would have on the pandemic. It will remain to be seen. Photos showed that at least in Seattle, most protestors are wearing masks and moving around a lot. I wondered how contact tracing could occur to definitely prove whether or not new cases were caused by the protests.
There was a short diversion due to the launch of the space shuttle. But only for a few days … then the focus seemed to shift from COVID to Protests, Black Lives Matter, and the demolition of landmarks and statues as well as other statements in support of BLM.
That is changing, however …. as of mid-June, there is concern that COVID case numbers are going back up.
June 23: Fauci/Trump Administration Officials Testify to Congress on COVID 19
I see two problems regarding attempts to control the infection rates: People letting their politics drive their information processing and action; and people not following the established safety health guidelines.
Ways of handling the virus vary from state to state. During the congressional hearings, members of Congress asked questions of a political nature to satisfy their constituents. I wish I would have noted which Congress members asked politicized questions so I could make sure not to vote for them in the future!
Toward the end of June ….
The infection rate in the US is now very near the initial peak from April, in practice undoing the whole lockdown procedure.
Anyone that thinks that a speedy re-opening is feasible doesn’t understand medicine, math, virology or people on even a fundamental level.
There is a difference between being reckless and taking an acceptable risk. And, the consequences of moving into Phase 2 and the reopening of businesses is making itself known.
I listened to a podcast that mentioned Poe’s Law. This theory pertaining to the dispersing of polluted information has (intentionally or otherwise) led to many conspiracy theories. This has had a negative impact on COVID 19 management … not to mention the upcoming Presidential Election. People should be educated on harm reduction strategy.
Derangement is Rampant
There are far too many conspiracy theories and there is too much fake news/false narratives!
Everything seems to be political these days … even the apolitical, such as COVID 19. The virus really doesn’t give a damn. Even the wearing of masks has become political (assisted by Trump’s off the cuff comments and behavior).
By the end of June, in Washington as well as California (and many other states nationwide), COVID 19 cases were going back up and states were pulling back or, at a minimum, not moving forward. The cause: community transmission and people being in Irrational Exhuberance Mode. I am reconsidering my planned trip to California in late July.
I am so glad that we have only slightly modified our “Stay At Home” behavior.